SIMULATION OF WATER DEMAND FROM SIMANINDO DISTRICT AND REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY COMPANY (PDAM) IN TOBA LAKE

Abstract

Water demand is its relentless rise over many years and projections of population growth over coming decades. Water availability is also increasing remains in a catchment area. Human activities gave impact for environmental degradation such as water quality. The volume of Toba lak?se water is getting decline. There is an indication of the decrease of water level from year to year, while the growth of the population living in the water body of Lake Toba has a low increase with an average of almost 3 percent (2009- 2017). It will give impact for water demand. Forest destruction around Lake Toba is bad enough where the forest area is only 15.8% of the catchment area. It leads to unstable lake water level and disrupts the utilization of the lake, especially the stability of water supply for PDAMs and people who take the source water from Lake Toba. The purpose of this study is to analyze and estimate water demand of Toba Lake and estimate the consumer and water demand of PDAMs user. The method calculated growth population and water demand using Super Vector Machine (SVM) and growth population model for next two years. The result of the research is a one-dimensional graph relating to community water demand in Toba and PDAMs user. Findings indicate that in 2020, some villages in Simanindo sub-district will experience a decrease population and some increase in population. It will give impact on the fluctuation of water demand for communities. People are experiencing a decline water deman in some sub-district. PDAMs users will experience an increase in customers and water demand in 2020.